“存款到期潮”或将来临？

Core Insights - The discussion around the maturity of deposits is intensifying, with various institutions providing differing estimates on the scale of maturing deposits by 2026, projected to reach a level of one trillion yuan, with one-year and longer-term deposits estimated to mature between 50 trillion to 70 trillion yuan [1] Group 1: Deposit Maturity Estimates - Different banking types show varying maturity scales, with state-owned banks expected to have the largest maturity volume of approximately 30 trillion to 40 trillion yuan, followed by joint-stock banks at around 10 trillion to 13 trillion yuan, and city and rural commercial banks combined at about 5 trillion to 7 trillion yuan [1] - The maturity of deposits is anticipated to exhibit a "front high and back low" trend, influenced by banks' annual "New Year" demands, leading to a larger volume of maturing deposits in the first quarter [1] Group 2: Post-Maturity Fund Allocation - After maturity, deposits are expected to flow into four main areas: repaying existing mortgages or consumption, purchasing bank wealth management products, investing in the stock market, and continuing to buy fixed-term deposits [2] - Historical data suggests that most maturing deposits will either be renewed or shifted to products within the banking system, with retention rates exceeding market expectations [2][3] Group 3: Investment Preferences and Trends - The portion of deposits that will be redirected is expected to follow a tiered migration based on risk tolerance, primarily used for debt repayment and essential consumption, with the majority moving towards bank wealth management, insurance, and money market funds [3] - A small fraction of higher-risk capital may enter the market through funds or ETFs, largely dependent on future capital market performance [3] Group 4: Wealth Management Product Trends - Banks are actively guiding maturing deposit customers towards purchasing wealth management products, with many wealth management subsidiaries launching mid to low-risk "fixed income+" products that aim to enhance returns while maintaining low volatility [4] - The "fixed income+" products are designed to meet investor needs by building a stable base with bond assets while flexibly allocating to stocks, gold, and other assets to seek yield enhancement opportunities [5] Group 5: Investment Strategy Recommendations - The end of the era of risk-free high interest rates signals a need for diversified asset allocation, with investors encouraged to adopt a threefold rational approach: cognitive rationality, allocation rationality, and tool rationality [5] - Investors should recognize the prevailing interest rate environment, diversify their asset combinations based on risk tolerance, and leverage professional institutional support for disciplined long-term investments [5]