Qian Zhan Wang·2026-01-28 09:09Core Insights - The copper smelting industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with major companies expanding their production capacities and the demand for refined copper continuing to rise [1][7]. Group 1: Industry Capacity and Production - Jiangxi Copper ranks first in copper smelting capacity in China, reaching 2.38 million tons by 2024, followed by Tongling Nonferrous Metals at 1.7 million tons and Jinchuan Group at 1.495 million tons [1]. - In 2024, the total new crude smelting capacity is projected to be 610,000 tons, while the new refined capacity is expected to reach 1.02 million tons [2][4]. - For 2025, the new crude smelting capacity is anticipated to increase to 1.35 million tons, with refined capacity at 1.25 million tons [6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The ratio of refined copper production to consumption in China is expected to be 84.97% in 2024, indicating that domestic production is still unable to meet the rapidly growing demand, leading to increased imports and a widening trade deficit [7]. - The average price of copper in the spot market is projected to exceed 77,000 yuan per ton in 2024, driven by declining global copper mine inventories and rising demand from sectors such as electric vehicles and artificial intelligence [8].