东北证券：氨纶行业供需格局向好 产品价格及盈利水平有望迎来修复

Core Viewpoint - The current spandex industry prices and price spreads are at historical low levels, with expectations for recovery as supply expansion nears its end and demand increases due to consumption upgrades [1][2]. Supply - Domestic spandex production capacity is expected to reach approximately 149.8 million tons by 2025, with a global capacity share of 77% and a CR5 concentration of 86.3% [2]. - The domestic spandex industry has undergone three rounds of capacity release cycles since 2010, with the latest expansion driven by demand for masks, yoga wear, and export needs starting in 2020 [2]. - The current capacity release cycle is nearing its end, and stricter environmental regulations are leading to the closure of smaller spandex manufacturers in eastern regions, which may further enhance industry concentration [2]. Demand - The domestic market for high spandex content apparel, particularly in sportswear, is experiencing rapid growth, with sales expected to reach 408.9 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.95% [3]. - As disposable income rises, consumer demand for clothing is upgrading, leading to a significant increase in the application and proportion of spandex in apparel, with spandex content in sports compression wear increasing by over 20% [3]. - The apparent consumption of spandex in China is projected to reach 108.8 million tons by 2025, representing a substantial year-on-year growth of 7.55% and a compound annual growth rate of 13.68% from 2022 to 2025 [3].