QCP：BTC 反弹回 88k 美元区间 期权定价左尾风险

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline earlier this week but rebounded to the $88k range, a level that has recently triggered liquidation-driven declines [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - QCP analysis indicates that the options volatility remains relatively stable with a positive term structure, but there is a left-tail skew indicating negative values, suggesting gap risk hedging [1] - The near-term options wings are expensive, reflecting the market's concern over potential volatility [1] Group 2: Upcoming Events - Key upcoming events include the Federal Reserve's policy decision on January 28 and the funding deadline on January 30, which poses a risk of government shutdown [1] - The potential for a brief government shutdown could lead to increased risk volatility, while a prolonged situation may tighten liquidity [1] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates, with a focus on inflation and employment data, leading to cautious market expectations [1] - The analysis also highlights the importance of monitoring the USD/JPY exchange rate for signals of external pressure [1]