去年第四季度营收大增贡献“神助攻”，昔日“西北啤酒王”能否成功保壳？

Core Viewpoint - *ST Lanhuang is at a critical juncture for "shell protection" as it faces the risk of being delisted if it fails to meet financial performance criteria in 2025, following three consecutive years of losses from 2022 to 2024 [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts a revenue of 400 million to 460 million yuan for 2025, with a net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be between -62 million and -90 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 9.88% to 37.92% in losses [2][5]. - The expected revenue for 2025 represents a significant increase, with a projected doubling of revenue compared to previous years, driven by a strong performance in the fourth quarter [2][4]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved approximately 219 million yuan in revenue, suggesting that the fourth quarter could see revenue between 181 million and 241 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 455% [3][4]. Industry Context - The fourth quarter is typically a low season for the beer industry, making the projected revenue growth for *ST Lanhuang particularly noteworthy [4]. - The company has been actively expanding its beer and beverage business beyond the Northwest region, increasing brand promotion and online sales, which has contributed to revenue growth despite rising sales expenses [4][7]. - The beverage sector has become increasingly competitive, with major players like Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer also entering the beverage market, making it a challenging environment for *ST Lanhuang's strategy of "beverage transformation" [7]. Historical Performance - From 2022 to 2024, the company's revenues were approximately 266 million, 241 million, and 211 million yuan, all below the 300 million yuan threshold, with cumulative losses of about 176 million yuan [5][6]. - The beverage business accounted for a relatively low percentage of total revenue during this period, with fluctuations in its contribution [7]. Strategic Moves - To counteract declining performance, *ST Lanhuang has made strategic investments in beverage companies, including the establishment of Lanzhou Yellow River (Chongqing) Beverage Co., Ltd. and acquiring a stake in Wuzhong Yiwang Juice Co., Ltd. [6][7].