Hymson(SH:688559) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-28 10:29Core Viewpoint - The company faced overall pressure on its performance in 2025, but it turned profitable in Q4 2025, indicating a potential turning point. With sufficient orders on hand and ongoing expansion in non-lithium battery sectors, future performance is expected to improve [1]. Group 1: Investment Highlights - The company's performance in 2025 was impacted by cyclical fluctuations in downstream industries, but it achieved profitability in Q4 2025, marking a turning point. Given the company's leading position in domestic lithium battery laser equipment and a robust order backlog, along with active expansion into non-lithium sectors, significant performance elasticity is anticipated in the future. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 4.372 billion, 6.012 billion, and 7.482 billion yuan respectively, with a target price set at 88.22 yuan based on a cautious 5x PS valuation for 2025 [2][3]. - The company released a performance forecast for 2025, estimating a net profit attributable to shareholders of between -910 million and -850 million yuan, with a non-recurring net profit forecast of -980 million to -920 million yuan. Quarterly losses narrowed in Q3 2025, and Q4 is expected to turn profitable, with an estimated net profit of 3 million to 63 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Factors Affecting Performance - The primary reasons for the losses in 2025 include overcapacity in the lithium battery and photovoltaic industries leading to sustained price pressure, increased difficulty in cost control, and a decline in the profitability of core business operations. The company also made provisions for asset impairment losses based on a cautious approach, which directly impacted current profits. Additionally, rising expenses for overseas market expansion and strategic R&D have temporarily eroded profit margins [3]. - As the lithium battery market continues to recover, the company's order scale has rebounded significantly, with new orders of approximately 4.421 billion yuan (including tax) in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 117.5%. As of June 30, 2025, the backlog of orders stood at approximately 10.085 billion yuan (including tax), up 46% year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Growth Opportunities - The company is actively diversifying across multiple sectors: 1. In the photovoltaic sector, it is collaborating with leading solar cell manufacturers to develop perovskite tandem batteries, which are expected to enhance photoelectric efficiency and weight-to-power ratios, with potential applications in low-orbit satellites and space computing power generation [4]. 2. In the solid-state battery sector, the company is the first in the industry to pursue dual technology routes of "oxide electrolyte + lithium metal anode" and "sulfide electrolyte + silicon-carbon anode," and it has secured commercial mass production orders for solid-state battery equipment [4]. 3. In other sectors, the company has received orders for laser drilling equipment in HDI and PCB fields, which are expected to benefit from the growth of the AI computing industry [4].