高人预测：如果不出意外，2026年楼市将迎来3个“趋势”，太真实

Group 1 - The core sentiment around home buying has shifted from urgency to concern about potential losses and resale value, indicating a significant change in market psychology [2] - The real estate market is expected to evolve along three clear trends by 2026, reflecting a new market logic [2] Group 2 - Price declines in the housing market are no longer uniform; a stark differentiation is emerging, with significant disparities between cities and property types [4] - A phenomenon of "structural decline" is becoming evident, where core areas in first-tier and strong second-tier cities maintain stable prices, while weaker areas face severe price drops [6][8] Group 3 - The traditional high-leverage, high-turnover model of real estate development has been fundamentally disrupted, leading to widespread debt defaults among numerous developers [10][12] - Stronger companies, such as Longfor and China Resources, have diversified their operations and established stable cash flows through commercial and long-term rental properties, allowing them to weather the downturn [12][14] Group 4 - The shift towards "current sales" instead of pre-sales is gaining momentum, aimed at reducing the risk of unfinished projects and enhancing buyer confidence [16][18] - Nearly 40 cities have begun piloting or implementing policies for current sales, with a significant increase in the proportion of new homes sold as current properties, rising from approximately 10% in 2019 to about 35% by early 2025 [19][21] Group 5 - The transition to current sales poses a significant challenge for developers, as they can no longer rely on pre-sale funds for project financing, leading to longer capital recovery cycles [23]