阿斯麦ASML：存储爆单，光刻机的超级周期也来了

Core Viewpoint - ASML's Q4 2025 financial performance exceeded market expectations, driven by significant growth in orders, particularly from storage manufacturers, indicating a positive outlook for 2026 [1][5][34] Revenue and Profitability - The company reported revenue of €9.72 billion for Q4 2025, a 5% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations of €9.56 billion, primarily due to growth from mainland China customers [1][16] - Gross margin for the quarter was 52.2%, aligning with the company's guidance of 51-53%, supported by a higher proportion of EUV shipments [1][17] - Net income reached €2.84 billion, also a 5% increase year-over-year, with a net profit margin of 29.2% [1][19] Business Segments - Lithography systems revenue was €7.58 billion, up 6.6% year-over-year, while service revenue was €2.13 billion, down 0.6% [1][29] - EUV and ArFi systems accounted for nearly 88% of lithography system revenue, with EUV revenue at approximately €3.64 billion, reflecting a 22% year-over-year increase [1][26] - The average selling price for EUV systems rose to around €260 million, while ArFi systems averaged about €82 million [2][26] Regional Performance - Mainland China was the largest revenue contributor, accounting for 36% of total revenue, approximately €3.5 billion, exceeding the company's previous expectations of 25% [3][31] - Taiwan contributed around €1.26 billion, representing 13% of total revenue, while South Korea's contribution rose to 22% [3][31] Orders and Guidance - Net orders surged to €13.16 billion, significantly higher than the market expectation of €6.8 billion, driven by increased orders from storage manufacturers [3][5] - For Q1 2026, ASML expects revenue between €8.2 billion and €8.9 billion, with a gross margin guidance of 51-53% [3][7] - The company provided a full-year revenue guidance for 2026 of €34 billion to €39 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 4%-19% [3][15] Capital Expenditure Trends - Major clients like TSMC and Micron have announced significant increases in capital expenditures for 2026, which is expected to drive demand for ASML's lithography systems [8][34] - TSMC's capital expenditure is projected to exceed $52 billion, indicating strong demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing [9][34] Future Outlook - The introduction of High-NA EUV technology is anticipated to further enhance ASML's growth trajectory post-2026, as it becomes essential for next-generation semiconductor manufacturing [10][34] - The combination of increased capital expenditures from key clients and the upcoming High-NA EUV shipments positions ASML for sustained growth in the semiconductor equipment market [12][34]