2026，除了黄金白银，还能买什么金属？

Group 1: Gold Market - Recent surge in gold prices, with international spot gold surpassing $5200 per ounce and domestic prices in Shenzhen exceeding ¥1300 per gram, both reaching historical peaks [1] - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.50-3.75%, signaling the start of a rate-cutting cycle, which is expected to further boost gold prices [1] - By the end of 2025, COMEX gold settlement prices are projected to have increased by 64.34% compared to the beginning of the year, making gold one of the standout assets for the year [1] Group 2: Industrial Metals - The strong rise in gold is part of a broader trend, with industrial metals also experiencing significant price increases, indicating a collective rally across precious and industrial metal sectors [3] - In 2025, all industrial metal prices are expected to rise, with tin and copper leading the charge, both exceeding 43% growth, reaching 44.91% and 43.96% respectively [4] - Other metals such as aluminum, nickel, zinc, and lead are also expected to see steady increases, with growth rates of 17.03%, 9.83%, 4.68%, and 2.45% respectively [4] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper is identified as a core industrial material, essential for various sectors including power transmission and renewable energy, and is viewed as a barometer for macroeconomic health [6][7] - The supply growth of copper is slowing, with global production expected to increase by only 2.3% in 2025, primarily due to limited output from major producers like Chile and disruptions at key mines [11] - Demand for refined copper is projected to grow by 7.7% in 2026, leading to a significant supply-demand imbalance and supporting higher copper prices [14] Group 4: Aluminum Market - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has reached its limit at 45.36 million tons, with production heavily reliant on hydroelectric power from southwestern regions [19] - If hydroelectric supply stabilizes, aluminum production may see slight recovery in 2026, but overall growth potential remains limited [21] - The cost of electrolytic aluminum production is decreasing due to falling prices of raw materials, with average profits expected to remain above ¥3836 per ton in 2025 [23] Group 5: Tin Market - China, Myanmar, and Australia dominate global tin resources, with China holding the largest share at 23.8% of total reserves [30] - The semiconductor and photovoltaic industries are expected to drive tin demand, with significant growth anticipated in solder materials due to advancements in technology [32][34] - By 2025, the tin consumption in the photovoltaic sector is projected to reach 63,000 tons, further solidifying its role as a key growth area [34] Group 6: Lithium Market - Lithium, essential for electric vehicle batteries and energy storage, is projected to see supply growth of 30.8% in 2024, with demand driven by the rapid expansion of the electric vehicle market [37] - By 2026, global lithium demand is expected to reach 166,300 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, reflecting a 20% year-on-year increase [39] Group 7: Key Companies - Zhongling Industrial is expected to benefit from the long-term supply-demand gap in electrolytic aluminum, with projected net profits of ¥15.5-17 billion in 2025, a 120.27% increase year-on-year [40] - Tianshan Aluminum is also positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for aluminum driven by the photovoltaic and automotive sectors, with expected net profits of ¥45-49 billion [40] - Luoyang Molybdenum is focusing on expanding copper production, with a target of 80-100 thousand tons by 2028, and projected net profits of ¥200-208 billion in 2025 [40]