HKEX(HK:00388) Nan Fang Du Shi Bao·2026-01-28 13:45Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong IPO market is experiencing a significant boom, with 117 IPOs in 2025 raising HKD 286.33 billion, making it the top global market for IPO fundraising. As of 2026, over 350 companies are waiting to go public, despite rumors of tightened listing requirements for dual-listed companies [1][2]. Supply Side: Policy Benefits Attracting Companies to List - The current queue for IPOs in Hong Kong includes 357 companies, with 105 of them being AtoH projects, indicating a strong trend in the IPO market. The surge is attributed to policy adjustments that have created market benefits, enhancing investor participation [4]. - The introduction of the "Tech Company Fast Track" in May 2025 allows biotech firms without revenue to list under specific conditions, while early-stage tech companies can also go public, particularly in robotics and AI sectors [4]. - In August 2025, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange optimized IPO market pricing and public market regulations, adjusting minimum allocation shares and initial public holding requirements [4]. Demand Side: Profitability Effect Attracting More Investors - The profitability effect has significantly increased investor enthusiasm for IPOs, with the average and median effective subscription multiples for offline offerings at 8.7 times and 4.5 times, respectively, and online offerings at 1654.9 times and 312.9 times, both historical highs [6]. - The IPO failure rate in 2025 was only 27.6%, the lowest since 2018, with a median first-day return of 9.6% and an average of 36.6%, both also the highest since 2018 [6]. - There has been a notable increase in cornerstone investors, with domestic institutions actively participating in cornerstone investments, contrasting with previous reliance on foreign investors [6]. Market Dynamics: Potential Disruptions from Lock-up Expirations - Despite the optimistic outlook for the IPO market, there are concerns about potential disruptions from lock-up expirations, which could impact stock performance post-IPO [7]. - Historical data suggests that lock-up expirations have coincided with market downturns, but the unique circumstances of 2025 may mitigate these effects, as new buying interest could offset selling pressure from cornerstone investors [7]. Overall Market Outlook for 2026 - The liquidity risk in the Hong Kong market is expected to be manageable in 2026, with earnings for non-financial companies projected to rise moderately. The ongoing global monetary easing and expectations of RMB appreciation are also favorable for the Hong Kong market [8].