加拿大央行维持基准利率在2.25%不变，不确定性限制了利率路径

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada maintains the benchmark interest rate at 2.25%, marking the second consecutive meeting without changes, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Bank of Canada acknowledges that the Canadian economy is adapting to structural challenges posed by U.S. protectionism, leading to high uncertainty in predicting future interest rate adjustments [2] - The central bank's economic growth forecasts remain consistent with previous estimates, projecting growth of 1.1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027, with an upward revision of the 2025 growth estimate to 1.7% due to less severe impacts from tariffs than anticipated [2][4] - The unemployment rate remains high at 6.8%, with rising youth unemployment and a decrease in the number of companies planning to hire [2] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The central bank expects inflation to remain around the 2% target, with trade-related cost pressures offset by excess supply [2] - The latest inflation rate for December is reported at 2.4%, influenced by a base effect from temporary sales tax relief last winter, while the preferred core inflation measure has decreased to approximately 2.5% [4] - The Bank of Canada emphasizes the limitations of monetary policy, stating it cannot address structural damages caused by tariffs or specifically target sectors severely impacted by economic shocks [5] Group 3: Future Policy Considerations - The central bank's cautious stance reflects the unpredictability of U.S. trade policies and high geopolitical risks, leading to a neutral outlook on interest rates [3] - The Bank of Canada retains flexibility regarding future actions, indicating potential paths depending on the economic transition to a new trade environment and consumer spending trends [3]