Disney Stock Before Q1 Earnings: Buy Now or Wait for Results?

Core Insights - The Walt Disney Company is set to report its first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on February 2, with expected revenues of $25.93 billion, reflecting a 5.01% growth year-over-year, while earnings per share are projected to decline by 11.36% to $1.56 [1][2] Financial Performance - In the last reported quarter, Disney achieved an earnings surprise of 7.77%, consistently beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate over the past four quarters with an average surprise of 15.79% [2] - The consensus estimate for Entertainment revenues is $11.6 billion, indicating a 6.8% year-over-year increase [9] - Direct-to-consumer entertainment operating income is projected at approximately $375 million for the quarter, driven by premium content launches and steady subscriber growth [11] Segment Guidance - Disney anticipates double-digit adjusted earnings per share growth for fiscal 2026 compared to fiscal 2025, with the Entertainment segment expected to see double-digit operating income growth, primarily in the second half of the year [3] - The Sports segment is projected to achieve low-single digit operating income growth, while the Experiences segment is expected to deliver high-single digit growth, also weighted towards the latter half of the year [3] Challenges and Headwinds - The theatrical business is facing significant challenges, with a forecasted $400 million adverse impact compared to the previous year due to tough comparisons with blockbuster performances [12] - Linear networks are projected to experience a $140 million decline in political advertising revenues, compounded by the absence of contributions from Star India [13] Market Position and Valuation - Disney's shares have declined by 7.8% over the past six months, underperforming the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector, which saw a decline of 7.5% [17] - The company trades at a forward P/E of approximately 16.22x, below the industry average of 17.86x, indicating a discounted valuation despite streaming profitability improvements [19] Investment Considerations - The investment case for Disney is mixed, with streaming profitability gains offset by theatrical pressures and cruise expansion costs, alongside declining political advertising revenues [22] - Management's guidance suggests a focus on second-half growth for fiscal 2026, creating near-term uncertainty for investors [22]