财经观察 林建海：全球经济“韧而不坚” 中国经济增长空间仍然广阔

Core Insights - The global economy is characterized by a "resilient yet fragile" state, with slow growth, high debt, and increasing uncertainty [2][3] - China has maintained an average growth rate of around 5% in recent years despite a complex external environment, showcasing its resilience and potential [2][14] - The global economy is expected to experience low growth, high debt, and high uncertainty in the coming period, with significant structural challenges [10][11] Global Economic Characteristics - The global economy is growing slowly with noticeable structural differentiation, and while it appears stable, there are significant underlying risks [3][4] - The IMF projects global economic growth at 3.3% for both 2025 and 2026, with the U.S. economy growing at 2.1% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026, while the Eurozone is expected to grow at 1.4% and 1.3% respectively [3][4] - Emerging markets, particularly in Asia, are becoming increasingly important for global growth, contributing around 60% to global economic growth, with China contributing about 30% [5][6] U.S. Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to show resilience due to better-than-expected performance, particularly in high-tech investments, especially in AI, which is projected to drive significant economic activity [5][7] - The fiscal and monetary policy environment remains relatively loose, with potential interest rate cuts anticipated in 2026 depending on economic conditions [8][9] - However, there are concerns about high tariffs' delayed effects, potential AI bubbles, and structural challenges such as rising government debt and income inequality [9][10] Challenges Facing Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are facing multiple pressures, including high debt levels, rising financing costs, and geopolitical tensions, which complicate their economic outlook [11][12] - The risk of economic and trade decoupling is increasing, which could significantly impact global economic cooperation and growth [12] China's Economic Potential and Challenges - China is transitioning from high-speed growth to high-quality, sustainable growth, facing challenges such as weak demand and a tightening external environment [14][15] - The potential for China's economy to grow at an annual rate of around 4% to 4.7% in the coming years is contingent on effective structural reforms and innovation [17][20] - Key areas for growth include enhancing domestic demand, addressing real estate market adjustments, and improving labor productivity through innovation and education [16][19] Long-term Structural Challenges - The global economy faces long-term structural challenges, including demographic changes, income inequality, and climate change, which could hinder sustainable growth [13][18] - China's growth potential remains significant, driven by stable political conditions, high-quality human capital, and opportunities for industrial upgrading and urbanization [19][20]