三生制药(1530.HK)：辉瑞全速推进707全球临床 ADC联用蓄势待发

Core Viewpoint - Pfizer has unveiled a significant R&D plan for 707/PF'4404 (PD-1/VEGF) in collaboration with 3SBio, with an accelerated pace and breadth beyond expectations, aiming to initiate four global Phase III clinical trials by 2026 across five major first-line indications [1][2] Group 1: Clinical Development - Pfizer plans to launch four Phase III clinical trials in 2026 targeting first-line squamous/non-squamous NSCLC, mCRC, endometrial cancer, and urothelial carcinoma [2] - The company has already completed the first patient enrollment for Phase III trials targeting first-line NSCLC and mCRC, as well as Phase II/III trials for first-line ES-SCLC [2] - Pfizer will also initiate Phase III clinical studies combining 707 with various ADCs, such as Padcev for first-line treatment of urothelial carcinoma [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Four multinational corporations (MNCs) are competing in the PD-(L)1/VEGF space, including Pfizer, BMS, Merck, and AbbVie, with Pfizer expected to stand out due to its "speed, breadth, and depth" advantages [2] - BMS and BioNTech have announced extensive clinical plans, but their progress in core indications like first-line NSCLC and mCRC lags behind Pfizer [2] Group 3: Pipeline and Financials - 3SBio is increasing R&D investments with multiple pipelines expected to yield clinical data, including 705 (PD-1/HER2) and 706 (PD-1/PD-L1) in Phase II trials in China [3] - The core business fundamentals of 3SBio remain robust, with projected revenue of approximately 4.2 billion yuan in 2025, including 2.89 billion yuan from the upfront payment for 707 licensing [3] - Excluding the upfront payment, the internal business revenue of 3SBio is estimated to grow by about 9% year-on-year [3] Group 4: Investment Rating - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 37.43 HKD, supported by an estimated net cash position of approximately 13 billion yuan [4] - Confidence in 707 becoming a global blockbuster is reaffirmed due to Pfizer's unexpected clinical advancement [4]