锦欣生殖(01951.HK)：2H25运营优化成效显现 期待26年继续复苏

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to report a slight decline in revenue for FY25, with an adjusted net profit of approximately 200 million yuan, but a noticeable improvement in both revenue and profit is anticipated in the second half of FY25 [1][2]. Group 1: Revenue and Profit Forecast - For FY25, the company anticipates a year-on-year decline in revenue, with a cumulative cycle count down by 1.4% compared to previous periods, but this is an improvement from declines of 8.3% and 5.2% in the first half of FY25 and the first three quarters of FY25, respectively [1]. - The company expects a recovery in cycle counts and revenue growth of 5-10% in FY26, driven by the inclusion of assisted reproduction in health insurance policies, which is expected to increase the proportion of artificial insemination (IUI) cycles [1]. Group 2: Operational Quality and Asset Structure - The company has completed the handling of overseas asset impairment and other risk issues in the first half of FY25, leading to a forecasted adjusted net profit of approximately 200 million yuan for FY25, with significant improvements expected in the second half [2]. - Continuous efforts in structural optimization, cost management, and asset quality improvement are expected to yield positive results in FY26, with an EBITDA forecast of around 550 million yuan, alongside improvements in net profit and free cash flow [2]. Group 3: Strategic Focus and Shareholder Returns - The company plans to complete the relocation of its new Shenzhen hospital by the first quarter of FY26, aiming to enhance its market share in core business areas [2]. - The company is actively pursuing a restructuring of its U.S. HRC operations, with significant improvements and capital recovery expected by the end of the first half of FY26, and plans to initiate a long-term stock repurchase program after reducing leverage [2]. Group 4: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted net profit forecast for FY25 has been raised by 19% to 200 million yuan due to business recovery in the second half, while the FY26 forecast has been lowered by 34% to 280 million yuan, with a new forecast for FY27 set at 360 million yuan [2]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 24.8 times for FY26 based on adjusted net profit, with a target price adjustment of 10% down to 3.5 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 41.1% [2].