多家机构预测，非洲2026年经济增速将在4%以上，高于全球平均水平——非洲经济在转型中积蓄增长动能（国际视点）

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformative impact of digital financial services like M-Pesa on rural farmers in Kenya, showcasing the broader trend of digital financial inclusion across Africa, which has over 51 million users [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Africa's economy will show resilience and steady growth, with a forecasted growth rate of over 4% in 2026, surpassing the global average [1][2] Economic Growth Projections - Africa is expected to remain a hub for high-growth economies, with at least half of the world's fastest-growing economies located on the continent [2] - The African Development Bank forecasts a 4.2% economic growth rate for 2025, increasing to approximately 4.3% in 2026, with 13 African countries projected to exceed 6% growth [2] Debt and Inflation Trends - The median public debt-to-GDP ratio for African countries is projected to decrease from 66.3% in 2023 to 65.5% in 2024, remaining below 65% through 2026 [2] - The average inflation rate in the region is expected to decline from 13.7% in 2025 to 10.3% in 2026, creating a more favorable fiscal environment [2] Regional Economic Performance - East Africa is projected to maintain a growth rate of about 6.2% in 2026, driven by investments in agriculture and energy infrastructure [3] - West Africa is undergoing significant economic transformation, with countries like Senegal, Guinea, Côte d'Ivoire, and Ghana expected to achieve over 6% growth in 2026 [3] - Southern Africa faces slower growth due to challenges like power shortages and high domestic interest rates, but a moderate recovery is anticipated in the latter half of 2026 [3] Digital and E-commerce Growth - The rapid proliferation of digital technology and e-commerce is significantly contributing to Africa's economic growth, with active mobile payment accounts exceeding 800 million in sub-Saharan Africa [4] - The e-commerce market in Africa is experiencing rapid growth, with user numbers increasing at an annual rate of approximately 18% since 2014, projected to reach about 518 million users by 2025 [4] Renewable Energy Initiatives - African nations are accelerating the development of green energy projects to address energy bottlenecks, with South Africa aiming to attract over 130 billion rand in private investment for renewable energy by 2030 [5] - Ethiopia is exploring various renewable energy sources, while Morocco aims to capture 4% of the global green hydrogen market by 2030 [5] Trade and Investment Dynamics - China remains Africa's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade exceeding $300 billion for the first time in 2025, reflecting a diverse trade structure [6] - The African Continental Free Trade Area is progressing, with 48 countries having ratified the agreement, expected to boost intra-African trade significantly by 2045 [5][6] Infrastructure and Cooperation - Significant progress has been made in infrastructure projects, such as the completion of the Guinea-Bissau bridge and the activation of the Tanzania-Zambia Railway project [7] - Chinese enterprises are increasingly involved in infrastructure and renewable energy projects across Africa, contributing to the continent's industrialization and economic integration [7]