Tesla Q4 2025 Earnings Preview: Should You Buy or Dump TSLA Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is expected to report Q4 2025 earnings on January 29, with stock trading down 3% year-to-date, indicating a relatively muted performance compared to historical standards [1] Earnings Estimates - Consensus estimates predict Tesla's Q4 revenues to decline by 3.7% year-over-year (YoY) to $24.75 billion, with concerns that the estimates may be overly optimistic due to a 16% YoY drop in deliveries [2] - Analysts forecast Tesla's earnings per share (EPS) to decrease by 50% YoY to $0.33, reflecting a significant decline in earnings over the past couple of years as margins have eroded due to price cuts [3] Earnings Call Insights - The Q4 earnings call is expected to maintain a similar tone to previous quarters, with CEO Elon Musk emphasizing Tesla's positioning as an artificial intelligence (AI) company rather than just an automaker, although the automotive business remains crucial for cash flow [4] - Key topics to watch during the earnings call include: - Delivery Guidance: Tesla's deliveries have fallen for two consecutive years, with a bleak outlook for 2026 due to the expiration of tax credits in the U.S. and increased competition from Chinese EV companies [6] - Cybercab Production Timeline: Production for the Cybercab is set to begin in April, but initial production rates are expected to be slow, with more details anticipated regarding the 2026 production plan [6] - Robotaxi Expansion and Monetization: Comments on the expansion and monetization of robotaxis, as well as progress on achieving full autonomy, are expected to be crucial for Tesla's valuation [6] - FSD Subscription Changes: The transition to a $99 monthly fee for full self-driving (FSD) is noteworthy, with potential updates on adoption rates and regulatory discussions in China and the EU that could positively impact Tesla's market position [6]