新债王：鲍威尔任期结束前，美联储不会再降息

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged during Chairman Powell's remaining term, as indicated by Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital [1] - Gundlach emphasizes that while inflation has slightly increased, it is not as concerning as previously thought, and the unemployment rate is stabilizing [1] - The Federal Reserve has kept the federal funds rate unchanged in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, with a statement indicating steady economic expansion and stable unemployment [1] Group 2 - Powell has only two policy meetings left in his term, scheduled for March and April, before a new chairman may take over in June, which limits the window for potential rate cuts [2] - Despite Gundlach's negative outlook on rate cuts during Powell's term, the market still anticipates two 25 basis point cuts by the end of 2026, as indicated by CME FedWatch [3] - This divergence in views suggests that short-term interest rate expectations may stabilize, while there remains potential for policy adjustments in the medium to long term, requiring asset pricing to balance between prolonged high rates and limited future cuts [3] Group 3 - Gundlach recommends investors allocate 30% to 40% of their portfolios to unhedged international stocks, which could benefit from local currency appreciation against the dollar [3]