Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-29 00:46Group 1 - Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, predicts that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged during Jerome Powell's remaining term, expressing a more balanced view on the economic outlook [1] - The Federal Reserve has kept the overnight lending rate unchanged at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, indicating that economic activity is expanding at a steady pace and that the unemployment rate shows signs of stabilization [1] - Gundlach believes that the interest rate cuts under Powell have reached a bottom, with the current benchmark rate successfully returning to a "balanced range" near the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield [1] Group 2 - Gundlach asserts that maintaining the current policy will be the main theme in the upcoming meetings before Powell's term ends in 2026, advocating for a 30% to 40% allocation in unhedged international stocks due to potential benefits from local currencies appreciating against the dollar [3] - Major investment banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have differing views on the likelihood of interest rate cuts, with JPMorgan's chief economist suggesting no cuts in 2026, while Goldman Sachs has delayed its forecast for rate cuts to mid-2026 [3][4] - Goldman Sachs expects two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in June and September 2026, arguing that while rates need to remain stable in the short term, there is room for minor adjustments as economic growth picks up and inflation cools [4]