美联储3月议息预测：维持不变的概率91%

Core Viewpoint - The latest predictions from Polymarket indicate a high probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in March, with a 91% chance of no change [1] Summary by Categories Interest Rate Predictions - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate is 91% [1] - There is an 8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 1.4% chance of a cut exceeding 50 basis points [1] - The likelihood of a rate hike of 25 basis points is less than 1% [1] Future Rate Cut Expectations - Polymarket forecasts a 25% probability of cumulative rate cuts totaling 75 basis points by 2026 [1] - There is a 23% probability of a 50 basis point cut and a 17% probability of a 100 basis point cut by 2026 [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point cut by 2026 stands at 12% [1]