中信证券：预计鲍威尔剩余任期内将不再降息

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained its policy interest rate at 3.5-3.75% during the January 2026 meeting, aligning with market expectations, and indicated stability in the U.S. unemployment rate, with no further rate cuts anticipated in the remaining meetings under Powell's chairmanship [1][2][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Highlights - The Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.5-3.75%, with a split vote where two members supported a 25 basis points cut [2]. - The Fed's balance sheet management includes reinvesting maturing Treasury securities and managing reserves, with approximately $15.4 billion in reinvestment purchases planned from January 15 to February 12, 2026 [2]. - Economic indicators show steady expansion, with employment growth remaining low and inflation still elevated, while the Fed aims for full employment and a long-term inflation rate of 2% [2]. Group 2: Changes in Economic Assessment - The Fed's language shifted from "moderate pace" to "solid pace" regarding economic activity, indicating a more robust outlook [3]. - Employment language was adjusted to reflect signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate, contrasting with previous assessments of rising unemployment risks [3]. - The inflation description was simplified to indicate it remains elevated, with the previous mention of rising downside risks to employment removed [3]. Group 3: Powell's Statements and Economic Outlook - Powell stated that the policy rate is in a good position and revised the expected peak of tariff-induced inflation from Q1 to mid-year [4][5]. - He highlighted the K-shaped economic recovery, where high-income individuals significantly contribute to consumption, driven by asset appreciation and AI-related investments [5][6]. - Powell expressed concerns about affordability but noted that the Fed's tools are limited in addressing structural issues like K-shaped economic disparities [6]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - The company anticipates no further rate cuts in Powell's remaining meetings, with asset prices showing minimal volatility in U.S. equities, bonds, and the dollar, while gold prices are influenced by geopolitical factors and market sentiment [7]. - The employment market is described as balanced, with low hiring and low layoffs, indicating no immediate pressure for further rate reductions [7].