Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-29 02:16Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical sector is experiencing mixed performance, with the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index showing a slight decline, while the Petrochemical ETF has seen significant inflows and growth in net value over the past two years [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 29, 2026, the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index decreased by 0.27%, with stocks like Sankeshu and Zhongfu Shenying leading gains, while companies like Hebang Bio and China Petroleum faced declines [1]. - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) fell by 0.47%, with a latest price of 1.05 yuan and a trading volume of 2.12 billion yuan, indicating active market participation with a turnover rate of 17.99% [1]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Performance Metrics - The Petrochemical ETF has seen continuous net inflows for 16 days, totaling 838 million yuan, with the latest share count reaching 1.106 billion and a total scale of 1.166 billion yuan, marking a new high [2]. - Over the past two years, the net value of the Petrochemical ETF has increased by 66.80%, with the highest single-month return recorded at 15.86% and the longest consecutive monthly gain spanning 8 months, achieving a maximum increase of 41.6% [2]. - The average return during the rising months of the Petrochemical ETF is 5.25%, and as of January 23, 2026, the one-year Sharpe ratio stands at 2.22 [2]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Outlook - According to Guosen Securities, the petrochemical sector is strictly implementing capacity reduction and replacement requirements for new refining projects, focusing on upgrading old facilities and demonstrating new technologies [2]. - The refining capacity in China is approaching the policy threshold of 1 billion tons, leading to the gradual consolidation and elimination of smaller capacities, while larger refineries are expected to increase their market share, optimizing the industry structure [2]. - With limited growth in refined oil demand, the transition towards "reducing oil and increasing chemicals" will be essential for refineries [2]. Group 4: Key Stocks in the Index - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index as of December 31, 2025, include Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum, and China Petrochemical, collectively accounting for 56.73% of the index [2].