Core Viewpoint - The company Jin Xin Reproductive (01951) is expected to see a recovery in its business in the second half of 2025, leading to a 19% increase in the adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 to 200 million yuan. However, the forecast for 2026 has been reduced by 34% to 280 million yuan due to increased costs and changes in financial confirmation methods, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 360 million yuan. The current stock price corresponds to a 24.8 times P/E ratio for 2026, and the target price has been lowered by 10% to 3.5 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 41.1% from the current level [1]. Group 1 - The adjusted net profit for fiscal year 2025 is projected to be approximately 200 million yuan, with a slight year-on-year decline in revenue expected [2]. - The company is anticipated to release its full-year results for 2025 in late March, with significant quarter-on-quarter improvements expected in the second half of 2025 [2]. Group 2 - The company is expected to see a gradual improvement in cycle numbers starting from the second half of 2025, with a return to stable growth in 2026, driven by the inclusion of assisted reproduction in health insurance policies [3]. - The overall cycle count for fiscal year 2025 is projected to decline by 1.4% year-on-year, a significant improvement compared to earlier periods [3]. Group 3 - The company has completed the handling of overseas asset impairment and other risk issues in the first half of 2025, with a notable improvement in the second half of the year [4]. - The adjusted net profit for fiscal year 2025 is expected to be around 200 million yuan, with EBITDA for 2026 projected to return to approximately 550 million yuan, indicating improvements in net profit and free cash flow [4]. Group 4 - The company is focusing on its core business and plans to enhance shareholder returns, with the new Shenzhen hospital expected to be fully operational by the first quarter of 2026 [5]. - The company is actively pursuing a restructuring of its U.S. HRC operations, with significant improvements and capital recovery expected by the end of the first half of 2026 [5].
中金：维持锦欣生殖“跑赢行业”评级 下调目标价至3.5港元