复旦碳价指数：2026年2月GEC价格指数大幅上涨

Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for February 2026, including national carbon emission allowance (CEA) prices, certified voluntary emission reduction (CCER) prices, and green electricity certificate (GEC) prices [1] CEA and CCER Price Expectations - The expected buy price for CEA in February 2026 is 72.47 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 83.69 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint of 78.09 CNY/ton; the buy price index increased by 9.59% to 181.18, and the sell price index rose by 12.88% to 188.83, with a midpoint index increase of 11.35% to 185.22 [2] - For December 2026, the expected buy price for CEA is 81.66 CNY/ton, sell price is 94.90 CNY/ton, and midpoint is 88.28 CNY/ton; the buy price index is 152.78, and the sell price index is 162.89, with a midpoint index of 158.05 [2] - The expected buy price for CCER in February 2026 is 71.80 CNY/ton, sell price is 83.80 CNY/ton, and midpoint is 77.80 CNY/ton; the buy price index increased by 8.13% to 180.49, and the sell price index rose by 7.99% to 201.59, with a midpoint index increase of 8.06% to 191.27 [2] GEC Price Index Surge - The price for green certificates from centralized projects is expected to be 7.38 CNY/unit, with a price index of 134.18; for distributed projects, the price is 7.05 CNY/unit with an index of 143.04; and for biomass power generation, the price is 7.04 CNY/unit with an index of 136.43 [3] - Compared to January 2026, the prices for all three types of green certificates have significantly increased, with biomass power generation certificates seeing the largest increase of 53% [3] January Carbon Market Overview - In January, the average closing price for CEA was 77.54 CNY/ton, a significant increase of approximately 22.55% from December 2025's average closing price of 63.27 CNY/ton; the market exhibited high volatility with daily fluctuations exceeding 5% [3] - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances in January was 62.97 million tons, a decrease of about 70% from December's 205.14 million tons, indicating reduced market activity post-compliance [3] - Despite the overall contraction in trading volume, there were instances of increased trading, such as a spike to 337 million tons on January 7, reflecting ongoing adjustments by institutions and enterprises [3] Global Carbon Market Trends - Globally, carbon market trading volumes decreased in January, with notable declines in the UK and South Korea; the EU carbon market saw a 9.25% drop in average daily trading volume [4] - Overall, carbon prices across various markets showed stable increases, except for New Zealand, which experienced a decline; the EU carbon market price rose from 101.19 USD/ton to 101.53 USD/ton, a 0.34% increase [5]