麦格里：美国对铜征收关税的可能性降低

Group 1 - Macquarie indicates that the likelihood of the U.S. imposing tariffs on copper is decreasing as the focus shifts to advancing supply negotiations rather than implementing trade measures on critical minerals [2] - The White House has concluded its investigation under Section 232 regarding the import of processed critical minerals and directed the Commerce Department to pursue supply agreements while keeping tariffs as a future option if negotiations fail [2] - Analysts suggest that the U.S. may maintain the status quo in the short term, delaying a final decision on copper tariffs [2] Group 2 - Despite limited progress in rebuilding domestic copper production, recent international agreements have enhanced supply security, such as a joint venture between the Democratic Republic of Congo and trader Mercuria, supported by the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation [3] - The agreement allows U.S. end-users to have priority purchasing rights, with Mercuria expected to sell approximately 500,000 tons of copper and 40,000 tons of cobalt annually, which is nearly 70% of the U.S. refined copper net imports for 2024 [3] - If tariffs are ultimately canceled, copper arbitrage trading may reverse, releasing accumulated U.S. inventory back into the market, potentially leading to a sharp price correction [3]