“特朗普利空”都不管用了？美股投资者开启“静音”，转向基本面

Core Viewpoint - Investors in the US stock market have shifted their focus from trade-related fears to the strong performance of the US economy, leading to a more confident market outlook [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index reached historical highs, touching the 7000-point mark, while the volatility index (VIX) dropped to its lowest level in five years, indicating reduced market anxiety [1] - Following the announcement of tariffs by President Trump, the S&P 500 index experienced a significant drop of 10.8% within two days, nearly entering a bear market, but recovered all losses by May 2 [2] - The S&P 500 index closed at a record high of 6978.60 points after Trump indicated no new tariffs on Europe, despite previous threats to increase tariffs on South Korea and Canada [3] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Market participants believe that tariffs are primarily used as negotiation tools, and the actual measures taken by the Trump administration will not be as aggressive as initially feared [3] - The ongoing strong performance of the US economy is perceived as more significant than the headlines surrounding tariffs, with investors confident in the economy's ability to absorb the impacts of tariffs [3] - Predictions suggest that the Supreme Court may rule against the tariff policies, leading to potential refunds, but uncertainty remains regarding the government's response [3] Group 3: Legal and Regulatory Context - The Supreme Court is expected to make a ruling on Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) for imposing tariffs, with potential implications for future tariff policies [4] - The government may utilize the Trade Act of 1974 to impose tariffs if the Supreme Court ruling is unfavorable, allowing for a temporary 15% tariff on all trading partners [4][5] - Implementing permanent tariffs under non-emergency powers may be more challenging and subject to legal challenges, although the market remains reassured that extreme measures will eventually be rolled back [5]