Dear Starbucks Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for January 29

Core Viewpoint - Starbucks is experiencing short-term stock momentum but faces challenges in medium- and long-term performance, with disappointing Q4 fiscal 2025 results and cautious guidance for fiscal 2026 [2][4][6] Financial Performance - Q4 fiscal 2025 net revenues reached $9.6 billion, reflecting a 5% year-over-year increase [4] - GAAP EPS was reported at $0.12, significantly missing analyst expectations of around $0.82 for adjusted EPS [4] - Operating income fell sharply to $308.5 million from $1.25 billion the previous year, with operating margin contracting to 4.5% from 18.7% [5] Comparable Store Sales - Global comparable store sales increased by 1%, driven by a 3% growth in international markets [5] Store Operations - The company closed a net of 627 stores, bringing the total to 40,990 locations [5] Future Guidance - Starbucks provided cautious guidance for fiscal 2026, targeting modest global comparable sales growth and mid-single-digit store expansions [6] - The company is focusing on "Back to Starbucks" initiatives under CEO Niccol, emphasizing labor investments and promotions without specific EPS or revenue targets [6] Stock Performance Comparison - In early 2026, SBUX shares increased by 14.5%, with a 3% gain in the last five days and 13% over the past month [2] - Compared to the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index, Starbucks outperformed in the short term but lagged significantly in the long term, with only a 4% gain over the last two years compared to the index's 43% [3]