矿业ETF（561330）涨超2%，近20日资金净流入超19亿元，工业金属供给扰动推动行情

Core Viewpoint - The mining ETF (561330) has risen over 2% on January 29, with a net inflow of over 1.9 billion yuan in the past 20 days, driven by supply disruptions in industrial metals [1] Group 1: Precious Metals - The expectation of interest rate cuts, the crisis of Federal Reserve independence, rising geopolitical tensions, and potential sell-offs of U.S. Treasuries are continuously catalyzing the precious metals market [1] - Central bank demand for gold remains strong, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, providing strong support for gold prices [1] - The demand for gold as a safe haven and investment is expected to persist long-term, leading to a potential long-term price increase [1] Group 2: Industrial Metals - The agency maintains a positive outlook on the electrolytic aluminum sector, expecting average industry profits to remain high due to low future capital expenditure intensity, highlighting the sector's dividend asset attributes [1] - Although aluminum is entering a seasonal consumption lull, the long-term fundamentals and macro narrative remain unchanged, providing strong support for aluminum prices [1] - The global aluminum inventory remains low, and the copper-aluminum ratio is at a historical high, indicating significant potential for aluminum price rebounds [1]