市场低估了风险？诺奖得主恩格尔发出2026预警 | 两说

Group 1 - The core issue highlighted is whether the financial system has adequately priced in the new normal amidst ongoing global challenges such as tariff conflicts, AI transformations, geopolitical tensions, and climate crises [1][3] - Engel identifies several sources of uncertainty for 2025, including tariff policies, anti-science sentiments in the U.S., immigration issues, and ongoing wars, which are increasing market volatility without sufficient caution from the market [3] - Engel's ARCH model serves as a tool for monitoring volatility rather than predicting market movements, emphasizing that it can indicate when volatility is high or low but cannot forecast market direction [5] Group 2 - Engel compares current tariff policies to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of the 1930s, suggesting that tariffs are detrimental to both parties involved and are unlikely to be sustainable [7] - He argues that AI should not be viewed as an independent source of market volatility, as it is fundamentally a probabilistic model that assists human decision-making rather than replacing it [7] - Engel stresses the importance of gradual and predictable policy adjustments to mitigate risks, as sudden changes can lead to reduced investment and consumption, ultimately slowing down the economy [7] Group 3 - For non-professional investors, Engel recommends using volatility control indices that automatically adjust positions based on market volatility, allowing for a gradual exit before major shocks occur [9] - He emphasizes the importance of disciplined risk management over market timing, suggesting that investors should build diversified portfolios with set volatility targets [9] - Engel expresses concern about potential escalations in wars, the re-emergence of stagflation, and stagnation in climate action, while remaining hopeful about improved U.S.-China relations that could benefit global economic stability [11]