方正证券：贵金属牛市演绎程度超预期 板块仍需持续关注

Core Viewpoint - The report from Founder Securities indicates that since January, COMEX gold has risen over 25% and silver over 65%, exceeding market expectations for a bull market, with significant volatility expected in the short term due to profit-taking and emotional adjustments [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The report highlights that the current bull market in precious metals is supported by global geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases, while the impact of AI on the U.S. job market and inflationary pressures from de-globalization remain significant [1] - The report emphasizes the need for ongoing attention to the precious metals sector, suggesting that if short-term volatility occurs, strict stop-loss positions should be updated [1] Group 2: Key Factors Influencing Precious Metals - Three key factors are identified as laying the groundwork for the precious metals market from late December to early January: 1. Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, with market expectations for rate cuts being cautious, and political statements from Trump raising fears about the Fed's autonomy [2] 2. An increase in geopolitical risks, including U.S. military actions and trade tensions, which bolster the demand for precious metals as safe-haven assets [2] 3. The potential for a weaker dollar, driven by political controversies and deteriorating U.S.-European relations, which may undermine the dollar's status as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 3: Recent Developments - Since mid-January, the concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence have been validated by ongoing investigations and hawkish stances from Fed officials, yet market interest in precious metals remains strong [3] - Geopolitical risks have been confirmed by recent U.S. military actions and political rhetoric, maintaining high levels of uncertainty in the market [3] - The trend of a weaker dollar has been reinforced by the chaotic situation surrounding Greenland and Trump's comments on the Fed, leading to a significant outflow of funds from dollar assets [4] Group 4: Price Movements - The combination of concerns about the Fed's independence, geopolitical risks, and expectations of a weaker dollar has led to a robust performance in precious metals, with gold surpassing $550/oz and approaching $5600/oz, while silver nears $120/oz [5]