国盛宏观：美联储如期暂停降息，下任美联储主席人选之一沃勒投下反对票

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to pause interest rate cuts, maintaining the benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75%, which aligns with market expectations. This marks the first pause after three consecutive meetings of rate cuts since September 2025, indicating a shift in focus towards inflation in the dual mandate of employment and price stability [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% was passed with a vote of 10-2, with dissent from Waller who favored a 25 basis point cut. The statement reflected a change in economic outlook from "moderate expansion" to "steady expansion" and indicated signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate, reducing previous concerns about employment risks [2][3]. Economic Outlook - Powell's remarks during the press conference were restrained, avoiding political commentary and emphasizing that the next chair should remain apolitical. He noted that the economy remains solid, with recent data showing improved economic activity. The labor market is stabilizing, and both inflation and employment risks have diminished. Inflation pressures from tariffs are expected to peak mid-year [4][5]. Market Reactions - Following the meeting, U.S. equities, bonds, and gold prices rose, while the U.S. dollar index fell. The implied probability of a rate cut in March 2026 remained below 20%, and the probability for June dropped from 83% to 74%. The market continues to expect approximately 1.9 rate cuts for the year, indicating a potential for two cuts [5][9]. Signals from the Meeting - The overall tone of the meeting was neutral to hawkish, with a reduced urgency for further easing as inflation remains above target and economic momentum improves. The urgency for rate cuts in the first half of 2026 appears to be diminishing [12]. Chair Nomination Developments - The prediction market indicates a shift in the potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve chair, with Rieder emerging as a frontrunner due to alignment with Trump's policy preferences. Waller's chances have increased following his dissenting vote, while Hassett's prospects have declined significantly. The nomination process remains uncertain, influenced by internal party divisions and the need for Senate confirmation [13].