豆油：2025年现货明显上涨，预计2026年延续涨势

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that domestic soybean oil prices in China are expected to continue their upward trend in 2026, supported by international market dynamics and domestic supply-demand factors [1][6] - In 2025, the average price of domestic first-grade soybean oil is projected to be 8,314 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.23% compared to 2024, while the average price of CBOT soybean oil is expected to rise by 11.39% to 49.27 cents per pound [1][6] - The correlation coefficient between CBOT soybean oil prices and China's first-grade soybean oil prices over the past five years is 0.80, indicating a strong positive correlation [1] Group 2 - In 2025, a significant price disparity exists between northern and southern regions of China, with southern prices generally higher due to stronger demand and economic conditions [3][4] - The price gap between southern and northern soybean oil markets narrowed in 2025, primarily due to high palm oil prices affecting demand dynamics [4] - The domestic soybean crushing capacity is expected to continue expanding in 2026, with high import levels of soybeans providing a solid raw material foundation for soybean oil production [6]