中信证券李翀：鲍威尔任期内或不再实施降息操作

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, pausing the previous three consecutive rate cuts [1] - The statement from the Federal Reserve shows significant changes, including a shift in economic activity description from "expanding at a moderate pace" to "expanding at a steady pace" [1] - Employment descriptions have been updated to indicate that "job growth remains at a low level, with signs of stability in the unemployment rate," contrasting with previous language that noted a slowdown in job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate [1] Group 2 - Inflation language has been simplified to "inflation remains elevated," removing the previous mention of "rising since the beginning of the year" [1] - The risk assessment has removed the phrase "recent risks of job downturn have increased," retaining only "monitoring risks on both sides of the dual mandate" [1] - The U.S. job market is characterized by a "low hiring + low layoffs" scenario, with supply and demand reaching a balance, indicating that the unemployment rate's stability will not drive further rate cuts in the short term [1] Group 3 - If no new tariffs are introduced, it is expected that the timeline for peak tariff inflation will shift from the first quarter to mid-year, which is a more hawkish stance compared to the December 2025 meeting [1] - The uncertainty surrounding new policies due to repeated tariff threats from Trump suggests that the remaining two meetings during Powell's tenure will likely pause rate cuts [1] - In terms of asset prices, U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar have shown moderate fluctuations, while precious metal prices have surged significantly, driven mainly by geopolitical factors and market sentiment [2]