半导体设备ETF（159516）大跌点评

Market Performance - The three major indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.3% and 0.57% respectively. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 3.23 trillion yuan, an increase of 264.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. The semiconductor equipment ETF underperformed, declining by 4.51% [1]. Downward Factors Analysis - Continuous outflow of broad-based funds has led to a rapid rotation in the market. On one hand, the persistent outflow of broad-based funds has created upward pressure on the overall market. On the other hand, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, food and beverage, and real estate have performed strongly, which, combined with previous significant gains, has placed downward pressure on the semiconductor sector. Overall, the decline in semiconductor equipment is not driven by fundamentals but is a result of a lack of major positive stimuli and the accelerated market rotation [1]. Future Outlook - There is strong demand for capacity expansion, and the semiconductor equipment sector remains in good condition. Notably, ASML reported a net sales figure of 9.7 billion euros for Q4 2025, with a gross margin of 52.2% and a net profit of 2.8 billion euros. The new order amount for Q4 reached 13.2 billion euros, with 7.4 billion euros attributed to EUV lithography machine orders, setting a historical record. By the end of 2025, ASML's unfulfilled order amount stands at 38.8 billion euros, with visibility extending to 2027. Storage customers accounted for 56% of the new orders in Q4, indicating strong momentum for global storage capacity expansion. This has positively impacted U.S. semiconductor equipment stocks such as Lam Research and Applied Materials, as well as storage companies like SanDisk and Micron, which reached new highs [1]. Expansion Expectations - The expectation for capacity expansion remains strong, with potential for upward adjustments. Currently, it is anticipated that NAND prices may continue to double in Q1 2026 and sustain this trend into Q2, significantly stimulating the industry's desire for expansion. Domestically, the market expects an expansion of 120,000 to 140,000 wafers for NAND this year, with ongoing tightness in storage capacity and further upward adjustments in expansion expectations for 2027-2028 [2]. Semiconductor Equipment Sector Growth Narrative - The semiconductor equipment sector continues to possess a clear growth narrative driven by "storage expansion and advanced process expansion." This cycle of semiconductor equipment differs from previous recoveries or domestic substitutions, as it is genuinely benefiting from the high demand driven by global AI. Whether it is the advanced process expansion required for AI computing power or the storage expansion propelled by AI, semiconductor equipment is a core element in overcoming capacity bottlenecks [2]. Valuation - As of January 29, the P/E ratio of the semiconductor equipment ETF index stands at 106.83x, placing it in the 85.40th percentile since its inception [3].