稳定币一哥押注黄金，“超级买家”能否改写金价规则？

Core Viewpoint - Tether's increasing demand for physical gold is becoming a significant force in the precious metals market, although its ability to independently influence gold prices remains limited [1]. Group 1: Tether's Gold Allocation Strategy - Tether plans to increase its gold allocation in its investment portfolio from approximately 7% to between 10% and 15% [1]. - If implemented, this adjustment could lead to an additional multi-billion dollar scale of gold purchases, given Tether's current stablecoin circulation of about $186 billion [1]. Group 2: Current Gold Holdings - Tether currently holds approximately 130 to 140 tons of physical gold, valued at around $23 to $24 billion [3]. - The gold allocation in Tether's overall assets has reached 12% to 13% after significant purchases over the past year [3]. Group 3: Market Mechanism and Impact - Tether's gold purchases primarily affect the demand side, as the short-term supply of gold is inelastic [5]. - The annual global gold production is about 3,500 to 3,600 tons, with recycled gold supply around 1,200 to 1,500 tons, making it difficult to significantly increase output in response to sudden demand spikes [5]. Group 4: Marginal Impact on Gold Prices - Tether's gold demand, estimated at 50 to 100 tons annually, accounts for about 1% to 2% of global annual supply, which is insufficient to dominate the market but can create marginal effects [7]. - The immediate impact of Tether's purchases is a tightening of physical gold liquidity, which may narrow bid-ask spreads and make gold prices more sensitive to incremental buyers [7]. Group 5: Price Support and Market Sentiment - Tether's weekly gold purchases of 1 to 2 tons may support gold prices by approximately 1% to 3% in the short term, particularly in contexts of a weakening dollar or rising geopolitical risks [8]. - Tether's positioning of gold as a "central bank-level reserve asset" resonates with market sentiments, especially as central banks have been increasing their gold purchases [9]. Group 6: Limitations of Tether's Influence - Despite Tether's significant role, its gold accumulation will not alter the long-term supply curve of gold, and its purchasing power cannot match that of sovereign buyers and ETFs [9]. - Macro factors such as Federal Reserve policies, dollar strength, and global risk sentiment remain the primary drivers of gold price movements [9]. Group 7: Conclusion - Tether's gold purchasing actions add structural demand support to the gold market, tightening the availability of physical gold and marginally supporting prices [10]. - Ultimately, Tether acts as a "stabilizer" in the market rather than a "game changer," reinforcing an already bullish market backdrop without triggering significant price surges on its own [11].