Apple Is the Second-Worst-Performing Dow Jones Stock So Far in 2026. Is the Sell-Off a Buying Opportunity?

Core Viewpoint - Apple is facing a significant sell-off in early 2026, down 8.8% year to date, making it the second-worst performer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, amid concerns over its AI software upgrades and the upcoming iPhone 18 launch [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Context - Apple's stock performance should be evaluated in context; it previously experienced a sell-off in early 2025 due to tariff fears but rebounded with a 32.5% gain in the latter half of the year, adding over $1 trillion in market cap [2] - Despite the recent pullback, Apple's stock is still up significantly over the last seven months, indicating that investors must assess the sustainability of its gains [3] Group 2: AI Integration and Product Development - Apple is integrating Google's Gemini models into its next generation of Foundation Models, with a Gemini-powered Siri expected to launch as soon as February [4] - The introduction of a voice-controlled AI assistant is seen as a strategic move to make AI more accessible to users, allowing for a gradual implementation of AI features [5] - Apple is known for its deliberate product launches, which can benefit long-term investors; the iPhone 17, released in September 2025, saw strong demand and earnings growth despite lacking significant AI features [6][7] Group 3: Financial Performance and Margins - Apple's product revenue grew by 4.1% in fiscal 2025, while services revenue increased by 13.5%, with products achieving a gross margin of 36.8% and services at 75.4% [10] - The growth of services, now comprising 26.2% of total sales, suggests potential for further margin expansion [10] - Overall, Apple's recent results indicate solid performance, with expectations for a significant year ahead driven by AI software upgrades and a new iPhone designed for AI integration [11] Group 4: Valuation and Competitive Landscape - Despite improving earnings and margins, Apple's valuation remains high, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 30.9, which is more expensive than competitors like Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta [15] - Analysts project earnings growth of only 10.3% in fiscal 2026 and 10.5% in fiscal 2027, raising concerns about the stock's attractiveness relative to its valuation [13] - The company's heavy reliance on consumer spending poses risks, especially as sales in China have declined and U.S. consumers may be hesitant to pay higher prices for AI-integrated devices [16][17] Group 5: Investment Considerations - While Apple is considered a decent stock to buy in 2026, it is not viewed as a compelling opportunity compared to other high-growth stocks like Broadcom or more balanced earnings growth from Microsoft [18] - Investors who believe in Apple's potential to leverage AI may still consider purchasing shares, especially given its strong balance sheet and consistent free cash flow generation [20] - Overall, buying Apple after its recent pullback may not be a bad idea, but it is not seen as a strong buying opportunity [21]