供应链数据显示，美国滞胀风险上升

Core Insights - The latest data indicates that the U.S. manufacturing PMI is at 48.2%, marking the ninth consecutive month in contraction territory, while the services PMI is at 52.6%, indicating slow growth [3][4] - The divergence between PMI and GDP growth rates suggests that the U.S. economy is losing growth momentum, with a current annualized GDP growth rate of only 1.3%, significantly lower than the 3.8% reported for Q2 2025 [3][4] - Supply chain inflation pressures are significant, with the ISM manufacturing price index at 58.5% and the services price index at 65.4%, indicating rising procurement costs for U.S. businesses [4][5] Manufacturing and Economic Growth - The U.S. manufacturing sector is experiencing a prolonged contraction, with the PMI below the neutral 50% mark, while the services sector, despite being in expansion, is not robust enough to support overall economic health [3] - The historical correlation between ISM data and GDP suggests that the current economic conditions are not reflective of a healthy economy, with the real growth rate adjusted for import fluctuations being around 1.3% [3][4] Inflation and Cost Pressures - The persistent inflationary pressures in the supply chain are evident, with a 3.8% year-over-year increase in the producer price index for intermediate demand products, indicating widespread cost increases across various sectors [4][6] - A significant portion of companies (66%) have not yet passed on these cost increases to consumers, indicating potential future price hikes as businesses absorb rising costs [4][6] Corporate Strategies in Response to Tariffs - Companies are adopting diverse strategies to cope with tariff pressures, with 37% absorbing costs, 34% raising prices, and 13% seeking domestic or third-country sourcing alternatives [6] - The trend indicates a shift towards sourcing from countries like Mexico, as U.S. manufacturing costs remain high, complicating the return of supply chains to domestic production [6] Economic Outlook for 2026 - The U.S. economy is projected to face stagnation with rising inflation risks, as businesses remain cautious in hiring and production due to tariff uncertainties [7] - The accumulation of inflationary pressures is expected to translate into higher consumer prices, raising concerns about stagflation—low growth coupled with high inflation [7] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in balancing monetary policy amid these conflicting economic signals, with limited room for maneuvering between growth stimulation and inflation control [7]