瑞银美国首席经济学家：预计美联储下半年降息两次

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. inflation and labor market may present conflicting signals, posing challenges for the Federal Reserve and its monetary policy [1] Group 1: Labor Market and Monetary Policy - The primary policy driver for the Federal Reserve this year will be the labor market, with the unemployment rate expected to remain around 4.5% by the end of the year [1] - This level of labor market weakness is sufficient to support two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - Regardless of who the new Federal Reserve Chair is, there will be a gradual push towards lower interest rates, even if immediate cuts are not implemented [1] Group 2: Inflation Outlook - The transmission effect of tariffs has delayed the overall decline of inflation in the U.S., with inflation expected to remain high in the first half of the year [1] - However, inflation is anticipated to decrease by 2027 [1] Group 3: Stock Market Outlook - The outlook for the U.S. stock market remains relatively optimistic, with expectations of good performance throughout the year [1]