每日投行/机构观点梳理（2026-01-29）

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts later this year due to easing inflation, allowing for two "normalization" cuts to bring rates back to neutral levels [1] - Allspring analysts highlight that sticky inflation and a stable job market will keep the Fed on hold, with a focus on the upcoming selection of a new Fed chair, likely to be more dovish [1][2] - Carson Group suggests that no rate cuts will occur before Powell's departure in May, with inflation remaining a concern despite positive labor market indicators [2] Group 2 - Ninepoint Partners anticipates the Bank of Canada to maintain rates until mid-2026, with potential rate hikes depending on economic stability [2] - Bank of America predicts the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise rates to 3.85% in February due to previous underestimations of inflation, with risks leaning towards further hikes in May [3] - CICC reports that the Fed's first rate cut may be delayed until the second quarter of 2026, citing structural issues in income distribution and affordability as core economic challenges [4] Group 3 - Huatai Securities maintains that the Fed will pause rate cuts from January to May, with potential cuts expected after the new chair takes office [5] - CITIC Securities forecasts that the remaining meetings under Powell will not result in rate cuts, as the Fed signals stability in the labor market and inflation concerns persist [5] - CITIC JianTou notes a recovery in fiber demand driven by AI applications, leading to potential profit and valuation increases for leading companies in the industry [6] Group 4 - CITIC JianTou's analysis indicates that A-shares are entering a critical verification period for economic prosperity, with a focus on sectors like AI and new energy [7] - CITIC Securities observes a price increase in core intermediates for dyes, predicting continued price rises and industry consolidation [8] - CITIC Securities remains optimistic about the specialty fiber sector's growth potential through 2026, driven by rising demand for high-end PCBs and supply constraints [9] Group 5 - CITIC Securities highlights the electronic sector's potential for excess returns in the next six months, with a focus on AI and self-sufficiency in investment strategies [9]