IPO雷达 | 澜起科技欲赴港股，业绩高增难掩存货与客户集中隐忧

Core Viewpoint - 澜起科技 is preparing for an H-share IPO amid a surge of semiconductor companies entering the Hong Kong market, with significant growth in revenue and profit projected for 2025, driven by strong sales of memory interface chips and modules [1][3]. Financial Performance - As of January 28, 2026, 澜起科技's market capitalization reached 198.6 billion yuan [1]. - Revenue from 2022 to the first three quarters of 2025 was 3.672 billion yuan, 2.286 billion yuan, 3.639 billion yuan, and 4.058 billion yuan, respectively [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the same periods was 1.299 billion yuan, 0.451 billion yuan, 1.412 billion yuan, and 1.630 billion yuan [1]. - The company expects a net profit of 2.150 billion to 2.350 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 52.29% to 66.46% [1]. Business Segments - The interconnect chip business accounted for over 94% of total revenue in the first three quarters of 2025, generating 3.832 billion yuan [1]. - Gross margin improved from 58.7% in 2022 to 64.8% in the first three quarters of 2025 [1]. Market Trends - The server memory module market is transitioning to DDR5, with penetration expected to rise from 50% in 2024 to 85% in 2025, providing growth opportunities for 澜起科技 [3]. - The demand for memory modules is anticipated to increase due to trends in the AI industry, positively impacting the sales of interconnect chips [3]. Market Position - 澜起科技 holds a 36.8% market share in the memory interconnect chip market, leading the sector [3]. - In the emerging PCIe Retimer chip market, 澜起科技 ranks second with a 10.9% global market share [3]. Inventory and Risks - The company's inventory increased significantly, from 350 million yuan at the end of 2024 to 795 million yuan by the end of September 2025 [4]. - The rise in raw material costs and the need for inventory impairment provisions indicate potential risks associated with inventory management [4]. Customer Dependency - 澜起科技's revenue is heavily reliant on a few major clients, with the top five customers contributing 84.2% to 76.8% of total revenue from 2022 to 2025 [5]. - The largest customer accounted for 25.6% to 28.1% of total revenue during the same period, highlighting the risks of customer concentration [5]. Financial Health - As of the end of Q3 2025, 澜起科技 had a low debt ratio of 10.87% and held 8.9 billion yuan in cash [6]. - The company has consistently generated positive operating cash flow, with 1.691 billion yuan in Q3 2025 [6]. Strategic Outlook - 澜起科技 aims to attract international talent and enhance its global presence through the Hong Kong listing [6]. - The company is navigating the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry and focusing on inventory management and customer diversification to ensure long-term stability [7].