TNMG(SZ:000630) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-29 12:29Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a strong rally, driven by macroeconomic factors, industrial demand, and positive earnings forecasts for listed companies in the sector [3][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector saw a surge with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit, including Silver and Hunan Gold [1][9]. - The Huabao Non-Ferrous Metal ETF (159876) reached a historical high, with a peak increase of over 4.1% and a final gain of 1.44%, indicating market resilience [1][9]. - The ETF recorded a trading volume of 283 million yuan, with a net subscription of 117 million units on the day, reflecting strong investor interest [1][9]. Group 2: Macro Factors - The Federal Reserve's pause on interest rate cuts, coupled with expectations for future easing, has enhanced the appeal of precious metals as a hedge against inflation [3][11]. - Analysts from CITIC Securities suggest that as long as the Fed remains in a rate-cutting cycle, there will be upward momentum for non-ferrous metal prices [3][11]. Group 3: Industrial Demand - Significant price increases were noted in key metals: spot gold reached 5,600 USD/ounce, LME copper surged over 7%, and rare earth prices rose, with core products like neodymium and praseodymium exceeding 120,000 yuan/ton [3][11]. - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metal sector is supported by strong industrial demand and price increases across various metals [3][11]. Group 4: Earnings Outlook - As of January 28, 24 out of 60 listed companies covered by the non-ferrous ETF have released earnings forecasts for 2025, with 21 companies expected to be profitable, indicating a positive earnings outlook [3][11]. - The majority of companies forecasted a year-on-year increase in net profits, suggesting a solid fundamental backing for the recent price increases in the sector [3][11]. Group 5: Future Prospects - Southwest Securities anticipates a resource supercycle in the non-ferrous metal industry, with prices for gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and rare earths expected to rise systematically [3][11]. - Huafu Securities believes that the non-ferrous metal sector will significantly benefit from profit-driven trends, supported by economic recovery and policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [3][11].