财报数据亮眼，盘前却跌7%，微软的市场预期差在哪？

Core Insights - Microsoft's Q2 FY2026 earnings report showed revenue and profit exceeding Wall Street expectations, but the stock price faced pressure due to concerns over rising capital expenditures and the pace of cloud business growth [1][3]. Financial Performance - Revenue reached $81 billion, a 17% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations by 1% [3]. - Non-GAAP EPS was $4.41, up 23% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations by 5% [3]. - Azure cloud business grew 38% at constant currency, slightly above Wall Street's forecast of 37% [3]. Capital Expenditure Concerns - Capital expenditures for the quarter were $37.5 billion, exceeding market expectations by 9% [3][4]. - Investors are worried that high capital spending has not yet translated into a proportional increase in Azure's growth rate [4]. - Goldman Sachs noted that Microsoft is prioritizing resources for strategic products like Copilot and internal R&D over short-term Azure revenue growth [4]. Azure Capacity Constraints - Microsoft management indicated that Azure is currently facing capacity limitations rather than a lack of demand [5]. - Goldman Sachs emphasized that Azure's growth guidance of 37%-38% for Q3 should be viewed as a reflection of capacity allocation rather than pure demand [5]. - If capacity had not been directed towards first-party applications and internal R&D, Azure's revenue growth could have exceeded 40% [5]. AI Product Development - The commercialization path for Copilot is becoming clearer, with a 160% year-over-year increase in M365 Copilot seats, reaching 15 million paid seats [7]. - Copilot is expected to have a better customer lifetime value to customer acquisition cost ratio compared to Azure, due to higher margins and customer stickiness [7]. - The growth guidance for M365 commercial cloud has slightly slowed to 13%-14%, reflecting the addition of new seats at lower average revenue per user [7]. Valuation Adjustments - Goldman Sachs adjusted Microsoft's valuation model, lowering the target P/E ratio from 32x to 28x, resulting in a target price reduction to $600 [8]. - Key downside risks include lower-than-expected revenue contributions from the OpenAI partnership, prolonged ramp-up times for internal chip production, and potential negative impacts from leadership changes [8].