What's in the Offing for Marathon Petroleum in Q4 Earnings?

Core Viewpoint - Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is expected to report fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on February 3, 2026, with a consensus estimate of $2.71 per share and revenues of $29.6 billion [1][10]. Group 1: Recent Performance - In the third quarter, MPC's adjusted earnings were $3.01 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.11 due to a $56 million charge from performance-based stock compensation [2]. - Revenues for the third quarter were $35.8 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $30.8 billion and reflecting a 1.3% year-over-year increase [2]. Group 2: Earnings Surprise History - MPC has beaten the consensus estimate in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 316.3% [3]. Group 3: Estimate Revisions - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth-quarter earnings has been revised downward by 31% in the past 60 days, indicating a projected 252% year-over-year increase, while the revenue estimate suggests an 11.5% decrease from the previous year [4]. Group 4: Business Segments - MPC operates primarily through two segments: Refining & Marketing, which refines crude oil and distributes refined products, and Midstream, which transports and markets crude oil and refined products [5]. Group 5: Factors Affecting Q4 Performance - Weaker margin capture, which fell to 96% in Q3 due to various market pressures, may negatively impact earnings in the upcoming quarter [6]. - Higher costs and lower utilization guidance, with expected utilization dropping to about 90% and turnaround expenses projected at $420 million, are likely to compress margins and cash flow [7]. - The renewable diesel segment continues to face challenges, including softer margins and ongoing start-up losses [8].