折叠屏变“碎碎冰”难题待解，苹果“折叠大法”引领今年风向

Core Insights - The global shipment of foldable smartphones is expected to reach approximately 25 million units in 2023, with China accounting for around 13 million units [1][6] - Despite durability issues in extreme cold, the foldable smartphone market is projected to grow significantly, particularly with Apple's anticipated entry into the market [6][12] Shipment Forecast - Global foldable smartphone shipments are predicted to be between 24 million to 25 million units in 2026, representing a growth of 41% to 47% compared to 17 million units in 2025 [6] - China's foldable smartphone shipments are expected to reach 12 million to 13 million units in 2026, a 20% to 30% increase from approximately 10 million units in 2025 [6] Market Dynamics - The foldable smartphone market has maintained a shipment volume of around 17 million units annually from 2023 to 2025 [6] - The anticipated release of Apple's foldable smartphone in 2026 is expected to drive significant market growth, addressing existing issues such as screen creasing [6][12] Consumer Preferences - The market is shifting towards larger foldable devices, which are more accepted by users, while smaller foldable devices are declining in popularity due to higher costs and lower performance [7] - The average price of large foldable smartphones is around 9,000 yuan, with Apple's new models expected to exceed 10,000 yuan [7] Regional Insights - China has become the largest market for foldable smartphones, expected to hold over 40% of the global market share by 2029 [8] - Major Chinese manufacturers are focusing on innovation in hinge design, screen technology, and overall device performance to maintain competitive advantages [8] Competitive Landscape - Huawei leads the Chinese market with a 32% share, showing a 14% year-on-year growth, while Honor and Vivo are facing challenges with declining market shares [9][10] - Other brands like OPPO, Samsung, and Xiaomi have market shares ranging from 7% to 8% [10] Challenges Ahead - The industry faces rising cost pressures and the need for manufacturers to balance cost control, pricing strategies, and product planning to enhance consumer appeal [12] - The impact of Apple's new product launch on the market dynamics will be a critical observation point for 2026 [12]