Meta Stock Down. $META May Pop 26% Due To Ad Growth Despite AI CapEx

Core Viewpoint - Meta's stock has shown a slight decline of 1% over the past year, but a recent earnings report has led to a 10% increase in pre-market trading, indicating positive investor sentiment following better-than-expected financial results [2][3]. Financial Performance - Meta reported a 24% revenue growth in Q4 2025, reaching approximately $60 billion, which exceeded expectations by about $1.5 billion. The earnings per share were $8.88, 8% above consensus estimates. The forecast for Q1 2026 is around $55 billion, which is $4.6 billion more than previous estimates [3]. - Analysts project a 26% rise in Meta's stock, with an average 12-month price target of $845.76 based on insights from 44 analysts [3]. AI and Future Outlook - Meta's CEO Mark Zuckerberg expressed confidence in the company's future, highlighting the rebuilding of their AI program's foundations and the upcoming release of new models and products [4]. - The company plans to nearly double its AI spending to as high as $135 billion by 2026, aiming to enhance its core advertising business, which is valued at $200 billion [5][11]. Challenges and Risks - Despite the optimism, there are concerns regarding Meta's ability to successfully commercialize AI, especially after the struggles faced with the Metaverse initiative, which has resulted in significant losses [6][9]. - Meta's Reality Labs has incurred losses nearing $80 billion since 2020, with a recent quarter showing a $6 billion operating loss against $955 million in revenue [7][8]. Advertising Revenue and AI Integration - AI has been a significant contributor to Meta's advertising revenue growth, with a reported return of $4.52 for every dollar spent by advertisers. The Advantage+ AI advertising tools generated nearly three times more revenue in Q3 2025 compared to Q1 2025, reaching a $60 billion annualized run rate [10]. - The integration of AI is expected to boost user engagement by 20% among Meta's 350 million Threads active users, potentially leading to additional revenue growth from WhatsApp ads [15]. Analyst Sentiment - Analysts remain largely bullish on Meta's prospects, with a focus on the company's ability to drive growth in revenue and profit through AI, despite the significant capital expenditures [18][19]. - Investors are willing to overlook the high spending on AI infrastructure, anticipating that it will lead to better-than-expected growth in the core advertising business [19].