贝恩：2025年中国奢侈品消费回流程度有所增加

Core Insights - The 2025 China personal luxury goods market is projected to contract by 3% to 5%, showing a significant easing compared to the sharp decline in 2024 [1] - 65% of luxury consumption is expected to occur within mainland China, with 35% taking place overseas, indicating an increase in consumption return [1] - The market is beginning to stabilize, with early signs of recovery noted in the second half of 2025, although consumer confidence still needs improvement [1] Luxury Goods Performance - The beauty and personal care category is expected to perform the best, recovering growth to 4% to 7% [1] - The apparel category is projected to decline by 5% to 8%, while leather goods and bags are expected to decrease by 8% to 11% due to price increases and lack of innovation [1] - The watch category faces severe pressure, with an anticipated decline of 14% to 17%, as consumers become more rational in their purchasing decisions [1] - The jewelry category is expected to see a smaller decline of 0% to 5%, benefiting from considerations of value retention and rising gold prices [1] Resale Market Trends - The resale market for luxury goods in China is projected to grow by 15% to 20% in 2025, although its penetration remains low at under 10% [2] - This growth is attributed to increased supply of second-hand goods, higher consumer acceptance, especially among younger price-sensitive consumers, and the widespread use of live-streaming platforms [2] - The resale market is becoming an essential part of the luxury ecosystem in China, reflecting a shift in consumer attitudes and market maturity [2] Rise of Local Brands - Local Chinese luxury brands are continuing to rise, particularly in beauty and skincare, leveraging culturally relevant product designs and competitive pricing supported by local supply chains [2] Future Outlook - Despite ongoing volatility and uncertainty, moderate growth is expected in the Chinese personal luxury goods market by 2026, maintaining its foundational role in the global luxury market [3] - The growth will depend heavily on specific product categories and brands, driven by the expanding middle-income group, improved consumer confidence, and favorable policies [3]