Can Allstate Beat Q4 Earnings on Property-Liability Strength?

Core Insights - The Allstate Corporation is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 4, 2026, with earnings estimated at $9.53 per share and revenues of $17.52 billion [1] Earnings Estimates - The fourth-quarter earnings estimate has seen four upward revisions and one downward revision in the past month, indicating a year-over-year earnings increase of 24.3% and a revenue increase of 4.9% [2] - For the full year 2025, the revenue estimate is $68.54 billion, reflecting a 6.5% year-over-year rise, while the EPS estimate is $29.81, indicating a significant year-over-year increase of 62.7% [3] Earnings Performance History - Allstate has a strong track record of exceeding earnings estimates, having beaten the consensus in each of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 47.3% [3] Earnings Prediction Model - The model predicts a likely earnings beat for Allstate, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +6.59% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [4] Factors Influencing Q4 Results - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net premiums earned suggests a year-over-year growth of 7.2%, while the model estimate indicates an 8.4% increase [5] - Net investment income is expected to grow by 5.1% year-over-year from $833 million, driven by higher yields from fixed-income securities [6] - Underwriting income from Property-Liability is projected to rise by 32% year-over-year, with a combined ratio improving to 82.7% from 86.9% [6] - Auto underwriting income is expected to increase to $969.3 million from $603 million a year ago, with the combined ratio improving to 90.1% from 93.5% [7] Cost and Expense Outlook - Total costs and expenses are projected to increase by more than 8% year-over-year due to higher operating costs and claims expenses [8] - The adjusted net income from the Protection Services business is expected to decline by 0.7% year-over-year [8]