泰国增长将跌至新低点

Economic Growth Outlook - Thailand's GDP growth is projected to slow to between 1.5% and 1.7% in 2023, marking the lowest rate in over a decade since the pandemic began [1][2] - The previous year's GDP growth was around 2.1% to 2.2%, with expectations for further decline in 2023 [2] Structural Challenges - The country faces fundamental structural issues, including high household debt at 87% of GDP, significantly above the normal range of 40% to 60% seen in other economies [1] - The liquidity situation has worsened, with loans to small and medium-sized enterprises shrinking for 13 to 14 consecutive quarters, limiting economic growth potential [1] External Factors - Global uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts, are contributing to the economic slowdown [1] - The underground economy is estimated to account for 30% to 100% of GDP, disrupting market competition and weakening the tax base [2] Investment and Consumption - Investment fatigue, governance issues, and increasing influence of gray capital are challenges that hinder competitiveness [1] - Consumer demand, previously a strong economic driver, is now weakening, exacerbated by the cancellation of tax cuts and stimulus measures during the political transition [2] Future Projections - The central bank anticipates a gradual recovery in economic growth to around 2.2% to 2.3% in the following year, driven by a return to normalcy in sectors like tourism [3] - However, this growth remains below Thailand's potential growth rate of 2.7% and significantly lower than the historical growth rates of 3.5% to 5% [3]