Altria's Q4 Earnings Lag Estimates, Cigarette Volumes Drop

Core Insights - Altria Group Inc. reported fourth-quarter 2025 results with top-line revenue exceeding estimates but declining year over year, while bottom-line earnings missed expectations and remained flat compared to the previous year [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the fourth quarter were $1.30, flat year over year, and below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.31, influenced by a lower adjusted tax rate and reduced share count, offset by lower adjusted operating companies' income (OCI) [2] - Net revenues totaled $5,846 million, a decline of 2.1% year over year, primarily due to decreased revenues in the smokeable products segment, although it surpassed the consensus estimate of $5,002 million [3] Segment Analysis - Smokeable Products: Net revenues fell 2.7% year over year to $5,119 million, driven by reduced shipment volume and increased promotional investments, partially offset by higher pricing. Revenues net of excise taxes decreased 1.1% [4] - Domestic cigarette shipment volumes dropped 7.9%, attributed to industry decline and trade inventory movements, while cigar shipment volumes increased by 4.2% [5] - Adjusted OCI in this segment decreased 2.4% to $2,643 million, impacted by reduced shipment volume and higher costs, with adjusted OCI margins falling 0.8 percentage points to 60.4% [6] - Oral Tobacco Products: Net revenues increased 2% to $706 million, driven by higher pricing, although shipment volumes declined by 6.3% due to retail share losses and trade inventory movements [7][8] - Adjusted OCI in this segment decreased 4.6%, influenced by elevated SG&A costs and a decline in shipment volumes, with adjusted OCI margins decreasing 5 percentage points to 64.5% [9] Capital Management - Altria ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $4,474 million and long-term debt of $24,140 million, alongside a total stockholders' deficit of $3,502 million [10] - In Q4 2025, the company repurchased 4.8 million shares for $288 million, and for the full year, it repurchased 17.1 million shares totaling $1 billion, with $1 billion remaining under the share repurchase program [11] Future Outlook - For 2026, Altria expects adjusted EPS in the range of $5.56 to $5.72, indicating year-over-year growth of 2.5% to 5.5% from a base of $5.42 in 2025, with growth anticipated to be weighted towards the second half of the year [12] - The company projects an adjusted effective tax rate of 22.5% to 23.5%, capital expenditures of $300-$375 million, and depreciation and amortization expenses of approximately $225 million [13]