70城房价最新数据出炉：上海新房继续领跑，二手房环比下降

Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with several cities experiencing increased transaction volumes and a decrease in the number of listings, indicating a shift in market sentiment [3][5][7] Group 1: Market Trends - In January 2026, the second-hand housing market in Shanghai saw transactions exceed 14,000 units, a nearly 30% month-on-month increase, while other cities like Beijing, Shenzhen, and Chengdu also reported a warming trend in transactions [3] - The number of listings in 26 key cities decreased, with 21 cities showing a month-on-month decline; Shanghai's listings dropped from 120,000 to under 90,000, a reduction of over 30,000 units in three months [3] - The sentiment among homeowners is shifting, with some choosing to withdraw listings due to unmet price expectations, while others are adopting a wait-and-see approach due to favorable policy changes [5] Group 2: Policy and Economic Environment - The policy environment is improving, with various cities optimizing purchase restrictions, reducing transaction taxes, and increasing housing loan limits, which are stimulating demand [7][9] - Tax policy adjustments have lowered transaction costs, with the capital gains tax for properties sold within two years reduced from 5.3% to 3%, potentially saving over 60,000 yuan on a 3 million yuan property sale [9] - The credit environment remains loose, with first-time home loan rates at historical lows and improved loan approval efficiency, providing liquidity support for the market [11] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The rental market is becoming more integrated with the sales market, with policies ensuring renters' rights and promoting long-term rental options, contributing to a healthier housing system [13] - The land market is showing positive changes, with increased competition for prime land parcels; the average premium rate for land auctions in Beijing reached 6.8% in January [15] - Demand structure is improving, with a higher proportion of transactions for larger units (over 120 square meters) and buyers focusing on project quality and amenities [15] Group 4: Future Outlook - Long-term, properties in cities with population inflows, such as those in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, are expected to retain value due to strong housing demand [21] - The real estate development model is shifting towards stable and healthy growth, reducing the likelihood of extreme market fluctuations [21] - The industry is undergoing a transformation towards green buildings and smart homes, with increased investment in technology to enhance product quality, which will drive future market dynamics [23]